If one were to watch ads and videos put out by proponents of Proposition 50, the ballot measure to redraw California’s congressional districts to benefit Democrats, it wouldn’t be hard to notice that President Donald Trump figures prominently in many of the messages.
That’s because many supporters of the measure view it as a referendum on Trump.
They look at it through a national lens, casting the president as a central figure in their argument that Prop. 50 is about saving democracy and the very principles upon which this country was founded.
But messages put out by the anti-Prop. 50 side make scant mention of Trump, if at all.
Rather, the measure is framed as a power-grab scheme by “Sacramento politicians.” Ads often focus on California itself, featuring local elected officials and residents criticizing Prop. 50 as a measure that would weaken the voices of local communities and deny them fair representation.
If Prop. 50 passes, new partisan congressional maps would be adopted, designed to help Democrats pick up five more U.S. House seats in next year’s midterm elections. They are intended to counter similar gerrymandering maneuvers, as prompted by Trump, in some red states to help Republicans maintain control of the U.S. House.
The new maps proposed in California, if approved by voters, would apply to the 2026, 2028 and 2030 congressional races. After that, the state would go back to having an independent redistricting commission draw maps for future congressional elections — a process voters approved 15 years ago, but which Prop. 50 would temporarily suspend.
Hannah Milgrom, a spokesperson for Newsom’s “Yes on 50” campaign, also known as the Election Rigging Response Act campaign, acknowledged that Prop. 50 supporters are leaning into invoking Trump’s name as part of their messaging.
“Obviously, this is a California election, but there are national stakes,” Milgrom said. “We’re trying to make sure Californians understand what this means: He (Trump) is trying to rig House seats. … If he does that, that means two more years of Trump control over Congress.”
That, in turn, Milgrom said, would mean Americans would continue to lose access to health care and continue to see mass immigration raids.
Campaigns working to defeat Prop. 50, which have also accused Democrats of attempting to rig the election for their own benefit, may be hoping to steer the conversation away from focusing on Trump.
The Protect Voters First campaign, backed by megadonor Charles Munger Jr., hasn’t featured Trump in its messages, nor has it gotten the president to get involved in its campaign.
“For us, this campaign was never about President Trump but was instead about preserving California’s citizen-led redistricting process,” said campaign spokesperson Amy Thoma Tan.
The other major anti-Prop. 50 group, Stop Sacramento’s Power Grab, did not respond to a request for comment.
The White House did not respond to an email inquiring about the president’s involvement, if any, in the Prop. 50 campaigns. An auto-reply from the White House press team said the monitoring of emails may be delayed due to staffing shortages stemming from the federal government shutdown.
Jon Fleischman, a longtime Republican strategist in California who does not support Prop. 50, said it would be a “fool’s errand” for the president to be more publicly involved in efforts to defeat the ballot measure, given the “no” side needs to win over independents and moderate Democrats to be successful.
“Where you want Donald Trump to engage is by picking up his phone and calling 30 of his richest friends and saying, ‘send money,’” to defeat Prop. 50, Fleischman said. “To ask him to engage publicly is to concede defeat.”
He said he wished Trump had done more behind-the-scenes fundraising, noting how lopsided the money game has been in the special election.
“There was a decision made somewhere,” he said of the anti-Prop. 50 side, “that this is not a campaign that could be won.”
Recent polls show Prop. 50 on track to pass.
On Friday, Oct. 24, Emerson College released results of a poll showing a 57% support for the ballot measure among likely voters versus 37% opposition. When undecided voters were included in the mix, the breakdown was 60% versus 40%, in favor of Prop. 50.
The poll had an error margin of +/- 3.19%.
Another poll, this one from CBS News, also showed the “yes” side with momentum. The poll, conducted Oct. 16-21, showed that 62% of likely voters surveyed said they voted or intend to vote for the measure, versus 38% who oppose it.
The poll also found that the majority of likely voters who support Prop. 50 view it as a national issue, and their reason for voting for it is to oppose Trump or national Republicans.
According to CBS News, voters who view Prop. 50 more as a state issue oppose it because they’re concerned the new maps would redirect power from rural parts of the state toward cities.
Case in point: The California Republican Party recently released an ad featuring two council members from Norco, a rural community in Riverside County known as “Horsetown USA.”
“Small-town California has really been dying, and Prop. 50 will kill that,” Councilmember Fia Sullivan said in the video.
“This is a town where we have large lots, trails on every street and open space. San Bernardino is just a completely different mentality to what we have here in Norco. … We are totally different from those communities, and so we’re very, very concerned that, one, we won’t have a voice anymore,” added Councilmember Kevin Bash as images of green, open space and Norco’s equestrian community were highlighted throughout the video.
The opposing side, meanwhile, has taken a different tack by featuring politicians with national profiles to hammer home the idea that Prop. 50 is about something bigger than just California.
“California, the whole nation is counting on you. Democracy is on the ballot Nov. 4,” former President Barack Obama said in an ad for the “Yes on 50” campaign.
“Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years,” he continued as an image of Trump with Vice President JD Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson flashed across the screen.
As campaigning for the special election heads into the final stretch, it’s almost certain more ads will drop over the next few days.
Voting began earlier this month and will end on Tuesday, Nov. 4.
More than 3.9 million completed ballots had been returned and accepted as of Thursday, according to the California Secretary of State’s office. More than 23.2 million registered voters had been sent a vote-by-mail ballot, though some people may opt to vote in person in the days ahead.
SCNG’s Kaitlyn Schallhorn contributed to this report.
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