Tariffs, a fluctuating stock market and the Los Angeles County firestorms are rippling through the Southern California housing market, where local agents are seeing sales flatten and bidding wars becoming scarce.
The inventory of homes for sale is up as home shoppers become more hesitant, agents say.
“Some people worry they’ll lose their job,” said Huntington Beach agent Lily Campbell. Because of falling stock market prices, “they don’t have enough down payment.”
New numbers from real estate data firm Attom show that February home sales in Southern California were down slightly from a year ago, which already was the second-slowest year on record.
Sales tallies show that 11,966 homes changed hands in February, or 13 fewer than in February 2024, Attom reported Thursday, April 17. That’s the third-lowest sales total for a February in numbers dating back to 2005.
Sales also were down 5%-8% in Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Ventura counties.
“Political machinations and current events and how a volatile stock market and bond market have been have kind of taken some of the momentum out of the recovery in the first quarter,” said Jordan Levine, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors.
Yet, home prices continue to rise, climbing 5% and matching record highs in Orange and Ventura counties.
The median price for a Southern California home — or the price at the midpoint of all sales —was $823,000 in February, or just $3,000 below the region’s all-time high reached last May.
Home prices have risen steadily for the past 13 years, with no end in sight, Attom figures show. The region’s median price has nearly tripled since the spring of 2012.
“A lot of people always expect little bit more, a little bit more, a little bit more,” said Edward Thangaratnam, an agent with HomeSmart Evergreen Realty in Mission Viejo. “That’s what has happened to the market, I think. People asking too much.”
The pace of price appreciation has slowed. February’s 5% year-over-year gain was tied for the third lowest appreciation rate of the past 17 months.
One possible reason is employment growth in the region has slowed, said economist Richard Green, director of USC’s Lusk Center for Real Estate.
“The economic fundamentals here have weakened,” he said.
“I think the tariffs could really hit us especially hard, because we have by far the largest ports in the country. Most of the stuff that comes through them is from China. That’s going to matter to us,” Green added.
There also are signs of increased sales demand in neighborhoods adjacent to the fire zones as some residents opt to buy now rather than spend years rebuilding.
A health care professional who lost his Altadena home of 22 years bought a home last month in San Marino so his family can get settled.
“I don’t want to be renting for three to five years, whatever it takes to rebuild,” said the man, who didn’t want his name used.
Neighborhoods like Beverly Hills, the South Bay, Santa Monica and Palos Verdes also are seeing sales to fire victims, said Levine, the Realtor economist. And thanks to remote work, some families are relocating out of L.A. County, moving as far north as Pismo Beach.
“You see what’s happened to Brentwood or Pasadena or San Marino. Housing just shot up,” Lew Horne, CBRE’s Southern California division president, said during a USC panel discussion Tuesday, April 15. Families want to find homes near their children’s schools, he said.
In the region as a whole, however, agents say the market has become more sluggish.
Southern California homes were averaging close to 50 days on the market as of February, compared with an average 37 days over the past two years, according to Redfin. (The number was closer to the average for March, however.)
The number of homes selling above their asking prices also decreased, dropping to around 37%, down from a 44% average over the previous two years.
“People are being cautious. People are dragging their feet,” said William Lopez, an agent with Masciel Real Estate in Riverside. “Are houses selling? Yes. The good ones. … But I’m still seeing houses just sit there for a longer period.”
Here’s a breakdown showing prices and sales tallies, with year-over-year percentage changes:
—Los Angeles County’s median rose 4.0% to $900,000; sales were up 8% to 4,456 transactions.
—Orange County’s median rose 4.3% to $1.2 million; sales were up 1.3% to 1,742 transactions.
—Riverside County’s median rose 1.4% to $610,000; sales were down 4.8% to 2,048 transactions.
—San Bernardino County’s median rose 6.0% to $530,000; sales were down 8.2% to 1,405 transactions.
—San Diego County’s median rose 4.1% to $886,500; sales were down 5.6% to 1,894 transactions.
—Ventura County’s median rose 3.9% to $875,000; sales were down 5.6% to 421 transactions.
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