Katie Porter’s blowups leave the gubernatorial race wide open – San Bernardino Sun

With the smoke finally beginning to clear following Katie Porter’s now-viral argument with a reporter – and the release of a 2021 video showing Porter scolding a staffer – it’s fair to ask just how much these incidents will shake up California’s gubernatorial race. 

To be sure, polls have yet to capture the full impact, and Porter has time to recover. She also still has strong support among organized labor – on Wednesday, it was reported that a large transport workers union endorsed her.

But there should be no doubt that Porter is on much shakier ground than just a few weeks ago, and there are numerous signs that the race has been blown wide open.

Indeed, the latest survey from UC Berkeley – conducted at the end of August – showed Porter in first place among the crowded field, with the former Congresswoman holding a 7-point lead over second place Chad Bianco (17%-10%). 

Of course, that was before the release of those two videos, which caused what one longtime Democratic strategist called “a disaster” for the Porter campaign. 

To that end, polling is infrequent this far out from the election, but political betting markets indicate a wide open race, underscoring the damage Porter has done to her viability.

According to political betting website Kalshi, Porter (19%) now trails Sen. Alex Padilla (25%), and has only slight leads over Rick Caruso (15%) and Stephen Cloobeck (14%).

That is a drastic shakeup from the day before Porter’s clash with a CBS reporter. At that point, she led Padilla by 30-points per Kalshi (40% to 10%) and Caruso was not even included.

Notably, neither Caruso nor Padilla have declared their candidacy, but there is a very real chance that either – or both – now see an opening and realistic path to victory.

Of those two, Padilla has generated much more enthusiasm.

Even before Porter’s stumbles, there had been considerable attention on Padilla, whose potential candidacy had “riveted California’s political class” per reports earlier this fall.

Padilla’s years of experience in Sacramento have endeared him to political insiders according to Politico, with one saying Padilla “brings certainty and stability” that no other candidate can.

The senator’s standing also saw a significant boost this summer when video emerged of him being tackled by bodyguards for Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem during a news conference in Los Angeles.

In addition to Padilla and Caruso, the Porter controversy has sparked rumors about other candidates exploiting the former front-runners vulnerability.

According to Politico, polls have begun testing Rep. Eric Swalwell’s viability, with a slew of questions directly highlighting Porter’s “reputation for mistreating and bullying” staff. 

That poll has not been made public, but its commission and “overwhelmingly positive slant” towards Swalwell suggest it was conducted with the intention of persuading the Congressman to join the race.

Likewise, multiple reports have pegged billionaire and 2020 presidential candidate Tom Steyer as potentially throwing his hat in the ring.

Steyer has emerged as a top funder for Gov. Newsom’s Prop. 50 effort, spending $12 million to back the effort, including running a pro-Prop. 50 ad during the National League Championship Series. 

For now, Steyer has been non-committal over his intentions, saying he is entirely focused on supporting Prop. 50, although there have been hints that he has his sights set on something bigger.

Commenting on Steyer’s possible ambitions, his spokesman took pains to highlight the multiple times Steyer has sparred with Donald Trump – including spending $50 million to impeach Trump during his first term – likely intending to boost his anti-Trump credentials at a time when California Democrats prioritize officials who can push back against the President.

Should the ballot measure succeed, it would not be surprising if chatter around a gubernatorial bid increased for both Steyer and Padilla, who will be signing the official ballot argument and appearing in multiple ads in support of the redistricting effort.

In that same vein, if Porter’s issues have been a disaster for her and an opening for others to get in the race, it’s also been an opportunity for those candidates who have already declared.

Antonio Villaraigosa took out three minute ads replaying the CBS meltdown, Stephen Cloobeck released an ad highlighting Porter’s history of “inflammatory statements,” while Betty Yee even said Porter should drop out of the race.