The debate over California’s Proposition 50 essentially boils down to one question: do California voters dislike President Trump so much that they disregard their own opposition to blatantly partisan gerrymandering?
Gov. Gavin Newsom certainly thinks so, and he is risking an immense amount of political capital in the process.
Indeed, as Newsom sees it, this fight against Trump is existential. Last Tuesday, the governor said that if the ballot measure does not pass, “we’ll lose this republic, we’ll lose this democracy.”
Put another way, as Politico reported, Newsom and California Democrats are relying on “internal polling” which “found that voters are more likely to support the issue if its framed in partisan terms as a pushback to Trump.”
Whatever one feels about redistricting, hyperbolic language about the threat Trump poses to democracy did not work in the 2024 election, so its potential impact now is questionable.
In many ways, Newsom’s strategy is virtually identical to the playbook Democrats have used, with mixed success, for almost a decade: making every election a referendum on Donald Trump, hoping that is enough to bring out Democrats and sway Independents.
That is a bold bet for Newsom to make.
Yes, Trump is deeply unpopular in California – just 29% of California voters approve of the job he is doing per Berkeley IGS polling – but partisan redistricting is almost as unpopular.
Polling conducted by the Citrin Center/Possibility Lab shows that just 36% of Californians support giving politicians the power to draw districts.
As such, Newsom’s success is far from guaranteed. Were Prop 50 to fail, even after the massive investment Newsom has made in passing it, it would be a considerable blow to his 2028 presidential ambitions.
To that end, how the Prop 50 vote goes may provide early insight into the 2026 midterms.
If, even in deep-blue California, antipathy and anger towards Trump are not enough, then aside from being an embarrassment for Newsom, it’s probable that Republicans will fare better next year.
Conversely, if Californians pass Prop 50, Democrats may believe that “stop Trump” is sufficient for their Congressional races.
All of this being said, the vote will likely end up being more complicated than that.
There are also deep-pocketed and influential backers of the effort to reject Prop 50.
This includes former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who, in a YouGov survey, ranks as the most popular Republican in the country, nearly 20-points ahead of President Trump (55% vs. 37%).
Also leading opposition groups are former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Charlie Munger Jr., the son of Warren Buffett’s longtime partner.
Importantly, Schwarzenegger – who publicly backed former VP Kamala Harris and has been a longtime supporter of independent redistricting – gives Republicans a relatively Trump-free, non-partisan shine.
Schwarzenegger’s line of attack – avoiding direct shots at Newsom in favor of arguing that Prop 50 would exacerbate the issue of hyperpolarization in our politics – may prove quite effective.
All the more so following the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk, which has prompted calls to lower the temperature and extreme partisanship in this country.
To be sure, California Republicans are keenly aware of the liability that is Donald Trump and are working on putting daylight between the president and this issue, hoping to nullify Newsom’s myopic focus.
State Rep. James Gallgher, who leads the Assembly Republican Caucus said Trump was “wrong” to push for Texas’ redistricting, making the point that California making the second wrong would not make a right.
Critical to both sides of the debate are Hispanic voters.
Trump did well with this group in 2024, both nationally and in California.
Across the state, Trump increased his vote share in nine of the 12 Latino-majority counties, per analysis from CalMatters.
However, heavy-handed immigration tactics have eroded some of those gains.
According to polling from the Latino voter group Somos Votantes, Trump’s favorability is 20-points underwater (39% to 59%) among Latino voters.
Looking to capitalize on Latino’s growing disapproval of Trump, the Democratic National Committee recently announced an initiative targeting this crucial bloc of voters. The DNC plans to have 41,000 volunteers going door to door as well as bilingual digital ads.
At the same time, there are very real questions as to whether dislike of President Trump will be enough by itself to overcome entrenched support for the current redistricting system.
Trying to overcome those concerns, Newsom and liberal influencers held a three hour long telethon, doubling down on their messaging. Throughout, they bashed Trump, and framed California’s efforts as a necessary response to save democracy in the wake of Texas’ own redistricting.
But with Trump not personally on the ballot this November, it remains to be seen just how effective that strategy is, particularly given how overtly political this move is by Newsom and California Democrats.
Ultimately, state ballot measures rarely become national events, but Prop 50 is certainly one with implications far greater than California.
Should it pass, Newsom will see a considerable boost in his polls, and Democrats will have reason to believe that a “stop Trump” strategy could help them prevail next year.
Or, if it fails – and right now it appears to be a coin-toss – Newsom’s 2028 hopes will take a significant hit, Democrats will be left with no strategy to carry over into 2026, and Trump will again have defeated a Democratic opponent.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
