Could these Inland Empire Republicans lose their seats in 2026? – San Bernardino Sun

By the numbers, Leticia Castillo should have lost.

But despite being outspent and running as a Republican in a blue Inland Empire Assembly district, Castillo, a marriage and family therapist from Corona, beat Democrat Clarissa Cervantes by 596 votes to win the 58th Assembly District seat in 2024.

That said, there’s a chance the political headwinds that likely helped Castillo in 2024 could work against her as she runs for reelection next year.

Buoyed by strong showings in recent elections, a backlash against President Donald Trump and an apparent shift in Latino voting behavior, Democrats are hoping for a blue wave in 2026 — one that might cost Castillo and another Republican representing part of the Inland Empire their seats.

“In California, where we have districts that are more marginal … Those are the ones where if everything holds true — and I’d likely think it is — those seats will swing to the left. They will swing blue rather than red, so anything that had a very close margin (in 2024) should be up for grabs right now,” said Marva Diaz, publisher of the nonpartisan California Target Book, which analyzes state legislative and congressional races.

Castillo, whose district includes Jurupa Valley, Grand Terrace and parts of Corona, Eastvale and Riverside, said via email she’s focused on serving her constituents instead of “political maneuvering.”

“I am confident voters will judge me by my work, not by party labels or outside spending,” she said.

“I listen, I show up, and I fight for their values in Sacramento. That approach has earned trust across party lines, and I’ll continue earning it every day.”

In one sense, flipping Castillo’s district might not be a top priority for Sacramento Democrats, who enjoy a supermajority in the legislature that doesn’t hinge on one seat.

That said, “from the Democrats’ point of view, why wouldn’t they take a shot here?” Diaz said.

“It’s a bright blue state. The funding is really on their side and the momentum’s on their side, and so they can always still point to ‘We need as many Democrats in the legislature to battle Trump.’ And for a lot of voters, that resonates.”

In an emailed statement, California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks said: “We continue to invest early and often in competitive seats with year-round, on-the-ground organizing.”

“We’re confident that when Democrats show up and do the work, we win. That’s exactly what we intend to do.”

To win another two-year term, Castillo will have to overcome voter registration numbers that aren’t in her favor. As of October, 41% of her district’s voters were registered Democrats, compared to 28% for Republicans.

Castillo’s win was part of a successful election cycle for Inland Republicans.

Trump became the first GOP presidential candidate in 20 years to win Riverside and San Bernardino counties, albeit by tight margins.

But in November, a majority of voters in both counties supported Proposition 50, a successful ballot measure opposed by Trump that redrew California’s congressional districts to help Democrats.

This year, Democrats have scored upset wins or outperformed expectations in elections coast to coast, even in deep red areas. The president’s party typically loses congressional seats in midterm elections, and Democrats eager to take control of Congress hope voters who want to punish Trump vote blue up and down their ballots.

Trump’s Inland wins were likely thanks to Latino voters, who shifted toward him significantly in 2024. Polling shows those voters are souring on Trump, a trend that could affect election outcomes in the majority-Latino Inland Empire.

Castillo also may have benefitted from voters’ unease about Cervantes, a Riverside city council member and the sister of state Sen. Sabrina Cervantes, D-Riverside.

Clarissa Cervantes faced questions about her two DUI arrests — the second, which happened in July 2023, prompted calls for her resignation and led to a stint in rehab. She’s planning to challenge Castillo in 2026, as is Democrat and Jurupa Valley real estate broker Paco Licea.

Despite the obstacles, Castillo is “a formidable opponent,” Diaz said.

“Being a Latina definitely helps her in that part of the world and she’s the incumbent. So her colleagues and others, especially those in the business community in Sacramento, will be stepping up to protect her.”

Castillo isn’t the only Republican with Inland ties who might face a tough reelection fight.

Assemblymember Greg Wallis, R-Rancho Mirage, whose 47th Assembly District includes the San Gorgonio Pass and parts of Highland and Redlands, also might be vulnerable in a blue wave.

Democrats hold a roughly 5-percentage-point voter registration edge in Wallis’ district, which includes deep-blue Palm Springs and cities in the Coachella Valley.

Running in the district for the first time in 2022, Wallis defeated Democrat Christy Holstege by just 85 votes — one of the narrowest margins for an Assembly race in California history. He beat Holstege by more than 5,000 votes last year.

Wallis said via email that his district is “a mix of Republicans, Democrats and independent voters who value results over party.”

He offered examples of his work he thinks will resonate with voters regardless of party, such as legislation extending electric vehicle carpool lane access and finding money to rebuild the Palm Springs fertility clinic damaged in a May bombing.