California Republicans have made their opposition to mid-cycle redistricting efforts in the state abundantly clear.
But what is becoming even more apparent is just how much of a gift the upcoming redistricting special election is for the state’s Republican Party.
Redistricting — and for the California GOP, the fight against redrawing the state’s congressional maps — is an opportunity for momentum and unity.
Voters do not overwhelmingly support Gov. Gavin Newsom‘s redistricting plan, recent polling shows, and that is especially true among more moderate and right-leaning voters.
And it’s a fight that largely fell into the GOP’s lap. Sure, Newsom has often said that gerrymandering California’s congressional maps mid-cycle to boost Democratic candidates hinges on similar efforts in Republican-led states. But here in California, it’s a charge that’s been led by national and state Democrats. Fighting redistricting and Proposition 50, the ballot measure before voters in November, experts say, is a call to action that was served up to the California Republican Party.
And, as GOP political strategist Jon Fleischman put it: Everyone is talking about it.
“People are fired up and concerned,” Fleischman, the former executive director of the California Republican Party, said.
“Prop. 50 is giving us absolute unity opposing the redistricting effort,” said Will O’Neill, who leads Orange County’s GOP. Republicans, O’Neill said, headed into their annual convention — held this weekend at the Hyatt Regency in Garden Grove — coalesced around opposing the fast-approaching special election.
“I’m not going to say Prop. 50 is a gift, but there are a lot of things (with that effort) that will help the Republican cause going into next year,” he said.
But unity and optimism, while good for a party’s morale in a state where Democrats control the statehouse and most congressional seats, even without gerrymandered maps, don’t necessarily translate into votes or changes Republicans may want to see.
What’s paramount for the party now is how it capitalizes on this fight, experts say.
“The redistricting fight certainly gives them motivation for a fight in a way that they haven’t had at a statewide level in a long time,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC and UC Berkeley.
“It’s a necessary and unavoidable strategy for right now,” Schnur added. “The question is whether they can use it as a foundation to build toward other goals.”
That’s not expected to be easy.
And that’s partly because of what essentially the party is fighting for by opposing redistricting: the status quo.
“It’s important to remember that even if they win the fight, it won’t be making any progress for the Republican Party,” Schnur said. “That doesn’t mean that Prop. 50 wouldn’t be an effective rallying cry for them, but defeating the initiative itself doesn’t substantially advance their cause.”
That’s a weird situation for California Republicans, said Matt Lesenyie, an expert in political psychology who teaches at Cal State Long Beach.
“One of the things that the Republican Party has been great at in the last decade is poking at the status quo here in California and nationwide, saying, ‘Aren’t we sick of this?’” Lesenyie said.
“There has been this cornucopia of Republican ideas or talking points about the problems in California, but sort of a lack of traction on the solving of it part,” he added. “It’s a luxury, in a way, to be a minority party because you don’t have to solve things.”
The party, Lesenyie said, has lacked a “focal point” in California for several years. It’s missing, he said, a big name in the party who consistently waves the flag and doesn’t disappear after a bruising loss in, for example, a race for governor or U.S. Senate.
There’s been no long-term momentum for the party of late, he said.
And if redistricting passes, the GOP in California will “be hamstrung institutionally for a long time.” The campaign against Prop. 50 “has to get some traction or else the next off-ramp for them, the next opportunity for them to do something, is going to just be the narratives about how they’ve lost seats,” Lesenyie said.
“That’s tricky because they are going to have even less power. Maybe they can come back from that, but with whom?”
Schnur suggested the party use the redistricting momentum to become more competitive in statewide elections, rather than just focus on the national and local parties.
“Right now, California Republicans focus on presidential politics and congressional campaigns, and they focus some on local and legislative races, but they haven’t prioritized statewide candidates and campaigns for a long time,” he said.
“It’s probably true right now” that a statewide campaign isn’t winnable, Schnur said. “The question is whether they can change that or not, and the first step toward making change is deciding that you want to.”
For now, Republicans’ focus is on the momentum gift from redistricting.
“People feel that this is just another deeply unfair and hypocritical assault on democracy from the people who keep lecturing us on democracy,” said Steve Hilton, a Republican candidate for governor in 2026 who has also filed a federal lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the redistricting plan.
“With this new election-rigging, gerrymandering scheme from Newsom … there’s a real unfairness there that makes the party feel incredibly forceful in fighting back,” the former Fox News contributor said.
“We are cautiously optimistic,” said O’Neill, a former Newport Beach mayor, noting Democrats still have the vast advantage in representing seats statewide. “But from our perspective, having something on the ballot that unifies Republicans and doesn’t completely unify Democrats and has an ‘it factor’ for no party preference voters is good.”
“Don’t let a crisis go to waste,” O’Neill quipped. “This election is a sprint, so there is a lot of effort to make sure we are organized and turning out voters, and that means we get to try a lot of things out to figure out what works and what doesn’t. Typically, you’re trying out new things during the primary season; we get to do that going into the primary season.”
The vibe, said CAGOP Chair Corrin Rankin, is excitement.
“This is really a huge, monumental undertaking. It’s historical what the governor is trying to do,” she said. “I truly believe that it falls upon us that Californians are well-informed.”
And that is largely the message at the weekend’s large gathering of Republican politicos, voters and candidates, where the event’s theme is: “Going on the offense, turning momentum into victory.”
Staff writer Linh Tat contributed to this report.
