As of Thursday, 100 days remained until the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar, promising a lively summer and fall of races that will narrow – or expand – the list of contenders.
It’s hard to imagine that list of bold-faced horse names getting longer or stronger than it is.
“Things can change quite a lot between now and Nov. 1, but at this point in the year I think contention in the Classic is one of the deepest I’ve ever seen,” said Jon White, the retired racing journalist and handicapper who set morning-line odds for eight Breeders’ Cups.
The steppingstones get steeper Saturday at Del Mar and Saratoga.
Nysos, trainer Bob Baffert’s brilliant 4-year-old, goes for his first victory in a race as long as 1 1/16 miles when he runs as a heavy favorite with jockey Flavien Prat in the $300,000, Grade II San Diego Handicap for 3-year-olds and up at Del Mar. It’s the eighth of 11 races starting at 2 p.m.
Sovereignty, the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner, begins his season’s second half by turning back to 1⅛ with Junior Alvarado in the $500,000, Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes for 3-year-olds at Saratoga. His opponents include Baeza (Hector Berrios riding), third to Sovereignty and Journalism in the Derby and Belmont, and Sandman (Jose Ortiz), third in the Derby.
Watching with interest will be the connections of Journalism. The Santa Anita Derby and Preakness winner and jockey Umberto Rispoli rallied dramatically in the Haskell Stakes for 3-year-olds at Monmouth Park in New Jersey on Saturday. Now he could face Nysos and other older horses for the first time in the Aug. 30 Pacific Classic for 3-year-olds and up at Del Mar, or try to avenge his two losses to Sovereignty in the Aug. 23 Travers Stakes for 3-year-olds at Saratoga.
With help from some of California’s top handicappers, here’s a look at the tests ahead for early contenders for the $7 million, Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic, the 1¼-mile race that’s the richest in North America and the main event of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar.
Horses are mentioned in rough order of potential.
Sovereignty and Journalism: Handicappers agree these are outstanding 3-year-olds, and if they get better the way horses that age normally do, they’ll be a match for the established heavyweights.
“For me, at this very early stage and projecting further improvement, I consider Sovereignty the one to beat,” Jon Lindo, the handicapper, horse owner and “Thoroughbred Los Angeles” radio host, said by email in reply to my question. “You might get a different answer after this weekend!”
Journalism is back at Del Mar after the Haskell, and lead owner Aron Wellman said, “Both the Pacific Classic and the Travers are possibilities.”
Mike Superstein, who handicaps Del Mar races for the San Diego Union-Tribune, said of Journalism: “That horse has incredible ability, tactical speed and a gigantic heart. Plus, after a hard Triple Crown campaign, he couldn’t have looked physically better on the track in the Haskell.”
Mindframe and Nysos: As with the 3-year-olds above, the East Coast 4-year-old is named before the West Coast 4-year-old based on head-to-head results so far, Mindframe having beaten Nysos by a neck in the 7-furlong Churchill Downs Stakes on Kentucky Derby day.
But Nysos figured to improve on that race, his first in 15 months. He did, romping in the 7-furlong Triple Bend Stakes at Santa Anita in late May. After that, Baffert set the ambitious goal of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, with the 1¼-mile Pacific Classic the first chance to for the son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist to prove his own stamina.
Mindframe has run longer than Nysos, having been caught late by Dornoch in the 1¼-mile Belmont Stakes at Saratoga in 2024 and won the 1⅛-mile Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs in late June. He’s likely to race next in the 1⅛-mile Whitney at Saratoga, for 4-year-olds and up, on Aug. 2.
“Nysos still has to prove he can get 10 furlongs,” Lindo said. “(He’s) super-talented but a lot of questions may be answered in the Pacific Classic.
The Pacific Classic could be pivotal in another way.
Said White: “(It) could give us a clue as to how the 3-year-olds stack up against their elders if Journalism runs – as it’s widely expected – and faces a very talented Nysos.”
Sierra Leone, Fierceness and White Abarrio: Sierra Leone and Fierceness ran first and second in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar as 3-year-olds, and White Abarrio won the 2023 Classic at Santa Anita as a 4-year-old.
They’re a combined 1 for 6 at the Grade I level since those races, including disappointments in the 1-mile Metropolitan Handicap at Saratoga in June. All three could show up in the Whitney, which has produced seven of the past 15 Breeders’ Cup Classic winners.
“Fierceness and White Abarrio are more than capable, but need to rebound from their performances in Met Mile,” said Bob Mieszerski, the Southern California News Group papers’ lead handicapper.
Forever Young, Admire Daytona or another horse from Japan: Forever Young finished third in the 2024 Classic after just missing in the Kentucky Derby. Japan will get its breakthrough win in a major U.S. race one of these years.
Baeza, Gosger and Magnitude: Those are two 3-year-olds who ran close to Sovereignty and Journalism in the Triple Crown races, and one fast 3-year-old who’s back after missing the Triple Crown. They could all go in the Travers.
“Baeza will only improve as he gets older and fills out that big frame,” Lindo said.
Others to watch: Santa Anita Handicap winner Locked, Oaklawn Handicap winner First Mission, Suburban winner Phileas Fogg, Dubai World Cup winner Hit Show and 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan.
And more? Maybe. There are, after all, 100 days to go.
“The next few months,” Mieszerski said, “should be very interesting.”
Follow horse racing correspondent Kevin Modesti at X.com/KevinModesti.
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