Southern California shoppers will not be in a buoyant holiday mood, at least when it comes to seasonal spending.
That dour buzz comes from the annual forecast of seasonal spending from the accounting giant Deloitte. The outlook, based on a survey of shoppers, shows skittish consumers will spend $1,627 this holiday season. That’s 14% less than 2024 – and it’s down 21% from the recent peak in 2021.
Now, this Scrooge-like thriftiness is not just local. Nationally, Deloitte’s poll estimated holiday shopping to be $1,595 per household, off 10% from 2024.
The “why?” is simple. The survey found that 62% of Southern California consumers expect a weakening economy ahead, compared with 34% in 2024.
Similar anxieties were found across the U.S., with 57% of Americans anticipating upcoming economic weakness this year, compared with 30% in 2024.
Other polls also show anxious shoppers.
California’s consumer confidence index has decreased 18% over the past year, according to the Conference Board. Nationally, confidence is off 8%.
What to give?
There’s a good chance Southern Californians will get gift cards this year.
The poll shows 20% of holiday spending will go to gift cards, with gift-card givers spending 9% more than they did last year – the biggest jump for any category. Gift cards are a popular way to stick to a holiday budget.
Other local holiday gift money will go to …
Clothing: 21% share of all spending, 10% less than 2024.
Food: 15% share, 22% less than 2024.
Toys/hobbies: 13% share, 2% more than last year.
Electronics: 10% share, 15% less than 2024.
Wellness: 9% share, 41% less than 2024.
Home: 8% share, 32% less than 2024.
Changing tastes
Tastes in gifting are also changing.
Local expenditures on retail goods are expected to fall to $888 in 2025, down 15% from last year and 32% from 2021.
Spending on experiences – including travel, shows, and other fun – is expected to be $739 in 2025, down 11% from last year but only 2% lower than 2021.
As a result, the share of retail goods in holiday spending has fallen to 55% this year, down from 63% in 2021.
This move is more about preference than budget. There is a growing popularity among today’s gift givers toward things to do over giving stuff.
How to save?
Summer Taylor, a retail managing director at Deloitte, notes that many local households are feeling a financial pinch, so fresh thinking is required to keep expenses in check.
“It’s all about celebrating in creative and thoughtful ways,” Taylor said. “People are finding smart ways to stretch their budgets – even turning to AI for help – and making the holidays special with personalized gifts like experiences, homemade items, and gift cards that create meaningful memories.”
The poll results offer money-saving advice, looking at what Southern Californians say they’re doing to keep a gift budget in line …
The right spots: 46% of those surveyed focus on stores with good deals, while 47% will choose affordable retailers over preferred merchants.
Reuse: 56% will consider regifting items, while 51% plan to repurpose wrapping, bags, and containers from last year.
Trade down: 61% will shift brands if their favorite is too expensive.
DIY: 40% will consider handmade gifts, and 31% will gift homemade food.
Timing: 43% will wait for deals, but 45% of holiday spending will be completed by the end of October.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
