DEL MAR — When Sovereignty was declared out of the Breeders’ Cup Classic a few days ago because of a fever, people said it was too bad the best thoroughbred in America this year would miss the richest race of the season.
Now we’ll see what the horses say about that.
The $7 million Classic, main event of the two-day, 14-race Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar, gives a solid handful of other horses a chance to join Sovereignty in laying claim to the 2025 North American Horse of the Year title that will be decided by a vote of reporters and racing officials in January.
California-based Journalism, second to Sovereignty among 3-year-olds so far, and 4-year-olds Fierceness, Sierra Leone and Mindframe have a chance to make a case to grab Horse of the Year away from Sovereignty by winning.
Fierceness, winner of the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in August, is the 5-2 favorite on the morning line (John Velazquez riding), followed by 7-2 Sierra Leone (Flavien Prat) and Japan-based Forever Young (Ryusei Sakai), 5-1 Journalism (Jose Ortiz) and 6-1 Mindframe (Irad Ortiz Jr.)
The up to 37,500 fans expected at Del Mar may yet be able to say they saw the nation’s finest racehorse.
The 1¼-mile Classic is scheduled for 3:25 p.m. Saturday, one of nine Breeders’ Cup races on the climactic day of the sport’s major fall festival. Temperatures in the high 60s and mostly sunny skies are forecast. The track and turf course almost certainly will be fast and firm.
“It’s racing’s championship day. That’s what it’s all about,” said Michael McCarthy, trainer of Journalism, leaving no doubt he thinks the Horse of the Year and 3-year-old championship contests are still open. “I would have to say it’s on the line for a few horses. I’d like to think we’re in the talk.”
Chad Brown, trainer of Sierra Leone, here to defend his 2024 Classic trophy, conceded that Sovereignty being scratched by trainer Bill Mott after getting sick Monday could hurt others’ Horse of the Year odds by depriving them of a chance to record a head-to-head victory over the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes winner.
“That’s another disappointing aspect to this scratch,” said Brown, who also has 50-1 Contrary Thinking, entered as a rabbit to try to engage other possible early leaders, ensure a fast pace and set up Sierra Leone’s closing kick. “Horse of the Year potentially could have been on the line and up for grabs a bit (depending on) the winner of this race. (The) 3-year-old (championship) and Horse of the Year could very well already be settled.
“But our focus is just try and win the race, and any other awards and accolades post-season are secondary to the task at hand.”
Nobody, including Mott, thought the year-end championships are absolutely settled.
“I think it was complicated even before (the scratch),” said Todd Pletcher, trainer of Fierceness, Mindframe and 10-1 Antiquarian. “You would think this race has a tremendous bearing on the outcome.
“If you could beat (Sovereignty) head to head, you could make a stronger case. But all you can do is run in here and see what happens.”
Fierceness’ and Mindframe’s owner, Mike Repole, said he thinks Fierceness’ 3¼-length win over Journalism in the Pacific Classic showed the 4-year-old class is ahead of the 3-year-olds.
“I think there’s like four or five horses that have enough of a résumé that if they win this race (they could be Horse of the Year),” Repole said, naming Journalism, Sierra Leone, Mindframe and Fierceness. “My take is these 4-year-olds are really tough.”
Fierceness should show early speed starting from post 1, from which he made a dangerous left turn before recovering in the Pacific Classic. Others who could be close to the lead are 20-1 Nevada Beach (Mike Smith), Mindframe and Antiquarian (Luis Saez), as well as Contrary Thinking (Florent Geroux). The rest will try to rally.
McCarthy wants Journalism closer to the front than he was in his Santa Anita Derby, Preakness and Haskell Stakes wins and Derby, Belmont and Pacific Classic seconds when Umberto Rispoli was riding.
“I think against the caliber of horses we’re running against, you don’t want to get yourself too far back. These horses just don’t stop,” McCarthy said.
John Shirreffs, who’ll saddle 10-1 Baeza – 15 years after winning the Classic with Zenyatta – envisions a tactical race.
“I think this race is totally a riders’ race,” Shirreffs said. “I don’t know if you can handicap it that easily.”
There’s anticipation for other races Saturday, most notably the $5 million Turf featuring the 7-year-old Rebel’s Romance, seeking a record-tying third Breeders’ Cup win, against the 3-year-old Irish filly Minnie Hauk.
But the 2025 Horse of the Year picture is focused on the Classic, the deepest in a long time.
Trainer Bob Baffert, one of the winningest trainers in Breeders’ Cup history, has favorite Seismic Beauty in the $2 million Distaff and Nysos in the $1 million Dirt Mile as well as Nevada Beach.
“To me, what’s exciting are the ones I feel like I can win,” Baffert said. “The Classic, I don’t know. He’s (Nevada Beach) a good horse. But that is an unbelievable race.”
